Thursday, May 22, 2014

UsdJpy Bearish Movement Continuation

I have gotten my hands really dirty watching this pair since yesterday. I wanted to wait till the end of today before posting. A friend of mine alerted me on facebook and I thought I have to put the analysis together for those who care for it. Now let's go

I benefited from the long bearish trend which started in April picking 220pips( though I didn't share here).                                                                                       The  bulls take over for a minor retracement and at a point I sold ( check the analysis here) and was stopped out at break even. Shortly afterwards, it dived down and my eye balls were rolling for missing a party i was suppose to be part of . This is Forex!

Presently,on the H4, we have confluence of events between 101.87 and 102.05 which is the level that should end the second correction of the downtrend that started in April. At this same level, we have a retest of the triangle and a channel formed by wave 2 and the efforts of the market to drive down to wave 3.

Market hasn't gotten to the minimum projection for wave 3 so the recent up-move could be a mere correction. A strong move downward is expected to break 101.10 and 100.75.

On the H1,we saw the end of wave 5 of the downward move that started on 13th may which is being corrected by an ABC-61.8% (at the reversal zone mentioned) zig-zag wave correction. Coupled with this is the potential formation of a deep crab harmonic pattern which is expected at the reversal zone mentioned.
The reversal zone mentioned should be a very strong magnetic zone for price indicating the continuation of the trend. Market is expected to react at this zone and i will watch out for reversal signal with my special entry strategy

On the other way, if price breaks the zone with a high momentum, then something else is happening and all this long analysis could be rendered invalid.

The analytical charts (H4 and H1) show the levels...Check it out

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