Friday, October 10, 2014

Is Usdcad prepared to resume the Uptrend?

I have been able to follow this pair nicely since July 6 when I predicted a powerful long term bullish move. Price was resting on the bear sides along the way and , each time it did, never failed to resume the bullish move.

Recently, on 5th october, I predicted a medium term correction after a perceived overbought. Price reacted as well and went down considerably with good profit         (already closed 80% of my position). 

You can take your time to read all my posts on Usdcad from July 6 to understand what I am talking about.

As we know, that a good trader or speculator doesn't stick to his thought about the movement of the market. He rather is flexible and adjust as price unfolds more information, and he reacts accordingly. He is less proactive and more reactive to price information. He reacts to what is happening and not what could happen.
A vivid look on this pair showed me that the recent bearish move we saw in Usdcad is a zigzag correction and price could resume the fifth wave to complete the 3rd wave of the larger uptrend.

Let me start with the weekly chart

What we are having is a motion and uncompleted  wave 5. By projection, it should end at the zone painted blue which is a confluence of equality ratio(wave 1 = wave 5) and 61.8% retracement of the last bearish trend. Price could be on its way to fulfill  this projection

Going by the 4H chart, a break above the wave 4 upper channel combined with a good bullish momentum should push price to 1.1364 which will be my first target if I decide to buy. 

On the other hand, if price is held there and turn down I could be on my way to reach my final target on the bearish note before thinking bullish.

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