Thursday, October 23, 2014

Two Face of Usdcad

Usdcad has proven to be a very predictable market in terms of technical analysis in the last few months. I have been able to gather close to 400 pips this month alone.

I predicted a bearish correction in my last post read the post here, with half of my trade closed at 100 pips ( risking 80 pips) and the other half to ride the trend with the stop loss adjusted to break even.

After days of waiting for the price to show where next it's heading to, I had to come with a two-face plan...A bullish-bearish scenario.

This market is presently in two scenarios and i will take time to discuss the two
Starting with the bearish scenario . I see an end of wave 3 of an expected 5-wave bullish move which could take us to 1.2000 and beyond. I expect a further dip in price in a corrective mode ( which is what is happening presently) along the wave 4 channel to 1.1100 before the bull move will surface once more.

 I am presently in a bear trade as i stated above and I will remain there until the wave 4 channel is broken upside. 
I will watch closely and get the picture price is painting before any further actions. 

If price breakes the wave 4 channel in the picture above ( Ist scenario), I have a new wave count to analyse what price could be showing.

The recent bearish correction to end sub-wave 3 of wave 3 ( In green) started at the 161.8% extension of sub-wave 1 from sub-wave 2 ( in black) . 

Presently, with the current correction pattern, price could be said to be forming a zigzag at 38.2% retracement of sub-wave 3 ( in black). 

If price breaches the sub-wave 4 trenline up, this scenerio could be very valid as price will rally to the top of the wave 3 channel ( indicated by the broken lines channel) at 1.140 and 1.1550 ( 200% ext. of sub-wave 1 from sub-wave 2). 

At this level wave 5 should be formed and market will be preparing for a major correction southward.

These are two very possible moves price can make in the nearest future.
Our responsibility is to wait till the market connect to us.
I will post an update here.

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