Monday, January 5, 2015

GbpAud Short Term View

I would not want to bore you with the long term analysis of this pair. What I know now is that an intraday corrective pattern is forming and I have forecast what price could do to this effect.

In the 4 hour chart below, we could see an emergence of an impulsive wave. Let’s see if we can follow price as it tells us what to do next. The first wave followed by the second corrective zigzag wave with about 50% fibo retracement. 


Price broke above the end of wave 1 which is a clear indication that price is searching for where to rest the third wave of the prospective bullish impulsive move.

In the quest to gather momentum to achieve this, price has moved above the first wave and it’s now moving toward the once resistance region that has now turned support. 

The third wave normally is a 161.8% projection of wave 1 taken from the end of wave 2, this will happen at 2.025. For this reason, I see the recent bearish correction as the fourth wave of the impulsve wave 3 of the primary trend.

Zooming down to the 1hour chart to see the emerging corrective pattern more clearly so as to forecast possible region of reversal. In the 1 hour chart below, price has a probability of forming a double zigzag pattern which could end at 1.8800-1.8760 or 1.8600 -1.8650. 



The former has been tested once and if broken again, we watch for the latter where we will wait for reversal signal to buy and aim profits as price could be on its way to 2.025 in the long run. 

If price doesn’t get to these regions, and rallies up to break the upper channel line, one can also buy and aim high. The former is aggressive with very high reward potentials while the latter is conservative with lower reward potential.

If price conversely breaks below 1.8650 in high momentum with no sign of reversal, the proposed impulsive move is invalidated and the move would be taken as an end of a zigzag ‘ABC’ corrective pattern with ‘C’ 100% extension of ‘A’ from ‘B’. I will update you if the scenario holds.

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