Thursday, March 19, 2015

RED ALERT: Usdcad Bears are Knocking.

I did an analysis on 13th February on Usdcad after discovering a successful flat formation and a reasonable bearish candlestick formation.You can read the analysis again


Usdcad went into some intraday triangle consolidation and I got myself following it hitherto.


 The triangle consolidation was breaking upside in an intra day motive diagonal move with 1.2800 acting as a resistive barrier. 


With another resistance at 1.3025 up for grasp and the FOMC announcement coming soon. It looked like a battle between these resistive levels...A resistive zone came to mind ( 1.2800-1.3205) especially when noting that 127% and 138.2% extension of wave1-3 from 4 of the C leg of the flat also fall within this zone. 


With price forming a flat corrective pattern (with C let coming as a clear impulsive move) at 50% retracement of the bearish move between Jan 2002 and Nov 2007, a reversal trigger is needed whether technically or fundamentally.


With the FOMC at the corner and 1.2800 acting very strong and an expected flat correction for a fresh bearish move, I had to exit my buy to 1.3205 and watch how price react to the announcement before knowing the next destination

The FOMC was negative and price move sharply out of the intra day ending diagonals to start a move downward. 


With all indications almost satisfied for a bearish move, Usdcad is expected to be on a bearish journey especially if this week candle is an engulfing one.

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