Monday, June 8, 2015

Gold Spot On!...

The dip from 2011 on the long term is looking impulsive as price crashed down in style. 

This dip goes well with the elliot wave theory which says, markets retrace in 3s in the opposite direction as the prevailing trend which is usually in 5s. 

On the long term, the corrective 3s are coming as expected, though could be in different corrective pattern. The first of the 3 - corrective waves according to the elliot wave theory are expected to be motive i.e Impulse waves or diagonals.

The Gold market looks like being in the first phase of this correction and it's expected to be a motive....Impulsive is more likely based on what we see at the moment.

This impulsive move which started in 2011 has completed the fourth phase of its development with a triangle corrective pattern and a crash down is expected as the last phase should be a motive wave.


With Fibonacci extensions and projections, the dip could continue to 681 in few years’ time. 

Price has, for couple of times, rejected 1126 thereby making it a psychological level to watch out for. A break below it could give the bears the upper hand.

The last phase of the expected bearish impulsive move started in January 2015 at 1309 and the corrective rally followed in March at 1141. 

Presently, the corrective rally can be analysed in two ways. As an expanding triangle or a zigzag.


With the expanding triangle, price should rise to 1246 (a psychological level) before a new bearish intra day impulsive move would drive price below 1141 and probably deeper.


If the zigzag correction holds, price could rally to 1200 before it continues the bearish movement as the first bullish intraday correction might have ended at 1230 (the most recent high).

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