Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Usdcad Taking One More Push Upside?

The price of Usdcad is predominantly determined by the crude oil markets. The negative correlation between them is so strong that as soon as oil price begins to fall, Usdcad immediately begins the rise in almost similar manner.

Since 2011, the trend of Usdcad has generally been bullish in what should be an impulse wave C of a cycle corrective ABC.

The C wave may have peaked at 1.3435 (100% fibonacci projection of wave A from B) but the impulse pattern doesn't look completed yet.

Price is probably in the 4th wave (a RUNNING FLAT corrective pattern shown in yellow) of the 5th wave of this impulse wave.

Price could rise in a 5th of 5th wave which would be expected to be the last push upside before the expected long term bearish move starts.

Price could rise to 1.4000 and 1.4255 price levels. The reaction at this level will detertmine whether the bears have a chance to drive price down in the long term.

Price should meanwhile be contained above 1.2770. A bridge of this level downward could mean that the 5th wave has already peaked at 1.3435 as earlier mentioned.

I favour more rally and only a bridge of 1.2770 will change my thought.

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