Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Gbpchf: The Long Term View

From the monthly chart below, it can be seen that Gbpchf has declined in 3-waves from 2.7328 to 1.13825 in a move that lasted for more than a decade.
The move is expected to be an impulse wave.

The rally from 1.13825 (2011 low) is expected to be the 4th wave of the impulse. Price has tried many times to break above 1.5600, which has now become a strong resistance.

The 4th wave which began at 1.13825 (2011 low) is getting set to complete a flat corrective pattern.

Flat patterns, according to elliot wave theory, are 3,3,5 patterns; the first wave wave is corrective (3-wave), the second wave is also corrective (3-wave) while the terminating wave (5-wave) is a motive wave (impulse wave or ending diagonal).

The weekly chart below shows the internal/building waves of this 4th wave.

The terminal wave of the flat correction is completing an ending diagonal. The 5th wave of the diagonal will be expected to be a 3-wave as indicated in the chart below.

If price is contained below 1.5600 and breaks below the trendline connecting wave 2 and 4 of the diagonal, there will be an opportunity to put a long term sell order to ride to 1.38 and below.

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