Wednesday, December 2, 2015

AudJpy May Continue Downside

We have been watching the long term historical activities of this pair for some time now but waiting for the right moment to follow the bearish trend move.

The move from 55.23 (in year 2000) to 108.275 ( in year 2007) was a clear 5-wave impulse (as illustrated in the chart below).

After such a move, one would expect a 3-wave correction (according to elliot wave theory). The corrections, though varying and complex in nature, are easy to spot.

The good thing about trading the elliot wave theory is that short term opportunities can be spotted within a large time frame and still following all the rules and guidelines of the wave theory. One can forecast a long term market move and trade clear patterns in the direction of the trend.

From 108.275 to 54.91 wave w ( a 3-wave decline) and back to wave x at 105.4 (a 3-wave rally), one can anticipate a double zigzag decline in labelled (W,X,Y in blue) which could end at 55 price level or below.

How can we take advantage of this forecast?, we can go to a lower time frame and read wave theory and price activities using combinations of technical tools.

The decline from 103.46 has completed the first leg of a double zigzag pattern and now correcting to 91.2 region. We expect price to be contained below 91.27 below the falling trendline. There is so much fibonacci ratios converging in that region. We expect it to be strong enough to keep the correction exhausted.

If there is a short opportunity below 91.27, a good ride could happen as we follow price decline further to 71.86

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