Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Aussie: Deep correction or A genuine move?

The Aussie kept soaring even higher against our expectation. Our expectation for the continuation of the bearish trend will even take longer time if price breaks above 0.7845 labelled as the long term wave (4) as shown in the weekly chart below. If this happens, we will have to believe that the 4th wave will be deeper than the present level.

With the wave count above, there is an extended wave (3) and the 4th wave at 38.2% retracement of wave (3) (at 0.8370) will be the next resistance to watch out for if price breaks above the 0.7845 wave (4) barrier.

If the statement above will hold, the recent upward move that started in late May should be more of an impulse wave than a corrective.
The chart below shows this move is more corrective than impulsive and wave (4) could have ended at 0.7845 which is a shallow one just like we had in wave 4 of (3).

The corrective pattern above is a very deep double zigzag pattern (slightly above 78.6% retracement of the preceding bearish move).

If price breaks out of the channels downside, we may see a 5-wave impulsive bearish move  to 0.608.
0.7845 is the invalidation price level. A break above it would make this scenario invalid.

At intraday level, the chart below shows a double top chart pattern.

A break below the intra day channels could give a good short term selling opportunity with stop loss above 0.7755.

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