Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Gold: We have a bearish bias...UNTIL!

From the long term view, it looks like Gold is in a 'no man's land'. Though the trend is bullish and price may continue the upside move at the end of the side-way movement but price may break below the congestion level and start a real correction- a deep one.

There is a way Elliott wave theory can put the current price action/activity to fit the general market structure.

Let's see if we can use it here to extract some vital information

 The chart above shows that from 1043.3 to 1375.05, price engaged in an impulsive bullish drive which broke out of a longer term diagonal.

After such a drive- 5-wave-, price should, according to Elliott wave theory, correct in a 3-wave drive in the opposite direction.

From 1305, price has gone in a sideway movement instead of a sharp corrective move.

Of course, if price breaks above the congestion and eventually, 1305, the bullish party will have to continue.

Conversely, if the congestion is broken downside, a deep lying correction will be confirmed.

I am expecting the later of these two scenarios- the bearish corrective move. I will be looking for opportunity southward.

Let me give you the following to chew and digest.

 From the chart above, there is a forecast for a zigzag correction with a triangle (b) leg. If this will hold, price will be expected to go southward in a 5-wave drive or sharp zigzag move (to form a double zigzag altogether) to 1240.

In another count below-

There is still the possibility of a Zigzag correction with a flat (b) and an expected zigzag or impulsive (c).

1280 and 1240 are good levels price will be expected to get to if price breaks downwards

Any successful bullish drive that breaks above the triangle (b) in the first corrective scenario may hamper the bears.

In the next update, I will share with you, the intra-day analysis so we can get a clearer picture and a good entry.

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