Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Nzdusd--- In Technical Analysis,Nothing is sure and Everything is probable

Many times, technical traders believe that one trade set-up is better than another. We won't realise this error until we ask ourselves these simple questions- "do I stake more of my capital on this trade than the other?" or "Do I exit this trade?. I have a better or another set-up somewhere and it's kind of contradictory".

Technical analysis may give us an edge but one thing is consistent-you will never know which trade set-up will win ,lose, drive a large move or a small one. We can only know when the move is done.

It is important that every technical trade set-up should be given equal importance especially when gotten from a similar time frame.

The chart above was the one we used on  23rd September after price broke out of a double zigzag wave (ii), so we had the first selling opportunity with stop loss above the terminus of wave (ii).

Price moved downside as expected for wave (iii). Price rallied and the thought of  "EXIT"would have dominated. Rather we recognised the wave ii of (iii) lining below a falling trend-line and we posted an update.

The chart above was used in the later update on 27th September where we expected price to stay below 0.733 and break below 0.72198 en route to 0.7082 which was considered the minimum ultimate target posing more than 1:2 R/R  for the first entry and 1:4 for the second target.

This is a type of opportunity that helps recover series of loses or cover good ground and help make buoyant to take more trades with confidence.

The question is 'would we allow the trade to run?'

Presently, this is what we have

Now that price has already surpassed 0.7080, the next target to look out for is 0.6960.

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